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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q3 Arizona Cardinals 4th & 2 at the 49

Arizona Cardinals 0 – Los Angeles Rams 34

What Actually Happened

(6:42) (No Huddle, Shotgun) 1-K.Murray sacked at ARI 49 for -2 yards (sack split by 99-A.Donald and 90-M.Brockers).

The Three Options

GO +0.72 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • 60% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 47, worth +2.80 EP
  • 40% chance to fail: Los Angeles Rams takes over around their own 49, worth -2.37 EP
KICK -0.75 EP
  • 35% chance to make a 66-yard field goal: 3 points, then Los Angeles Rams takes over around their own 25 after the kickoff, worth +2.38 EP
  • 65% chance to miss: Los Angeles Rams takes over around their own 49, worth -2.41 EP
PUNT +0.21 EP
  • Los Angeles Rams would take over around their own 14, worth +0.21 EP

The Verdict

Chose GO ✓ matched the model