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New York Giants

2-9 HC Pat Shurmur
@
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Chicago Bears

5-6 HC Matt Nagy
Sunday 2019-11-24 · 13:00 ET Soldier Field, Chicago US ☀️ Clear Spread 6.0 O/U 41.0

Win Probability

NYG
32.4%
CHI
67.6%
☀️ Clear

Confidence: clear edge Bands are honesty-checked against held-out seasons, not a feeling about this game — see the full track record.

Key Insights

  • NYG offense: -0.129 EPA/play over its last 8 games (26th in the league)
  • CHI offense: -0.089 EPA/play over its last 8 games (25th in the league)
  • NYG defense: +0.019 EPA/play allowed over its last 8 games (21st in the league)
  • CHI defense: -0.088 EPA/play allowed over its last 8 games (7th in the league)
  • Daniel Jones (NYG): -0.118 EPA/dropback in prior starts
  • NYG on 7 more days rest than CHI

New to these stats? NFL 101 Glossary →

Predicted Final Score

NYG 18 11–25
–
CHI 23 16–30
Projected margin: CHI by 5 Projected total: 41

The range under each score is this model's typical error on unseen games — ±10.2 pts on margin, ±10.7 pts on total (held-out 2025). Treat the bigger number as the middle of that range, not a precise call — see the full track record.

Injury Report — Week 12

NYG

Rhett Ellison TE Out Concussion
Evan Engram TE Out Foot

CHI

Adam Shaheen TE Out Foot
Danny Trevathan LB Out Elbow
Isaiah Irving LB Questionable Quadricep

Pulled fresh for 2019 week 12 specifically, not a cached snapshot — this changes every week as new reports come in.

Actual Result

NYG 14
–
CHI 19

Prediction missed by 0 pts on margin, 8 pts on total.

Scoring Summary

  • Q2 07:43 TD NYG (7:43) (Shotgun) 8-D.Jones pass short left to 82-K.Smith for 3 yards, TOUCHDOWN. NYG 6 – CHI 0
  • Q2 00:11 FG CHI (:11) (Field Goal formation) 15-E.Pineiro 26 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-48-P.Scales, Holder-16-P.O'Donnell. NYG 7 – CHI 3
  • Q3 12:19 TD CHI (12:19) (Shotgun) 10-M.Trubisky pass deep middle to 12-A.Robinson for 32 yards, TOUCHDOWN. NYG 7 – CHI 9
  • Q3 07:12 FG CHI (7:12) (Field Goal formation) 15-E.Pineiro 24 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-48-P.Scales, Holder-16-P.O'Donnell. NYG 7 – CHI 13
  • Q3 05:23 TD CHI (5:23) (Shotgun) 10-M.Trubisky right end for 2 yards, TOUCHDOWN. NYG 7 – CHI 19
  • Q4 04:17 TD NYG (4:17) (No Huddle, Shotgun) 8-D.Jones pass deep left to 15-G.Tate for 23 yards, TOUCHDOWN [52-K.Mack]. NYG 13 – CHI 19

Fourth-Down Decisions

  • Q1 NYG 4th & 10 at the 47
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 29% p(FG) 30%

    (12:57) (Punt formation) 9-R.Dixon punts 39 yards to CHI 8, Center-51-Z.DeOssie, fair catch by 29-T.Cohen.

    See the full breakdown →
  • Q1 CHI 4th & 2 at the 84
    Chose PUNT Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.74 EP
    p(convert) 62%

    (11:38) (Punt formation) 16-P.O'Donnell punts 45 yards to NYG 39, Center-48-P.Scales. 15-G.Tate to NYG 44 for 5 yards (27-S.McManis). PENALTY on NYG-39-E.Penny, Offensive Holding, 10 yards, enforced at NYG 39.

    See the full breakdown →
  • Q1 NYG 4th & 3 at the 53
    Chose PUNT Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.53 EP
    p(convert) 49% p(FG) 18%

    (8:40) (Punt formation) 9-R.Dixon punts 44 yards to CHI 9, Center-51-Z.DeOssie, fair catch by 29-T.Cohen.

    See the full breakdown →
  • Q2 NYG 4th & 7 at the 64
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 36%

    (14:55) (Punt formation) 9-R.Dixon punts 55 yards to CHI 9, Center-51-Z.DeOssie. 29-T.Cohen ran ob at CHI 13 for 4 yards (17-C.Core). PENALTY on CHI-45-J.Iyiegbuniwe, Illegal Blindside Block, 5 yards, enforced at CHI 10.

    See the full breakdown →
  • Q2 CHI 4th & 18 at the 92
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 28%

    (11:11) (Punt formation) 16-P.O'Donnell punts 46 yards to NYG 46, Center-48-P.Scales. 15-G.Tate to CHI 42 for 12 yards (48-P.Scales).

    See the full breakdown →
  • Q2 CHI 4th & 17 at the 82
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 27%

    (6:54) (Punt formation) 16-P.O'Donnell punts 51 yards to NYG 31, Center-48-P.Scales. 21-J.Peppers to CHI 29 for 40 yards (84-C.Patterson; 55-J.Woods). CHI-27-S.McManis was injured during the play. He is Out.

    See the full breakdown →
  • Q2 NYG 4th & 5 at the 24
    Chose KICK ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 37% p(FG) 84%

    (5:50) (Field Goal formation) 2-A.Rosas 42 yard field goal is No Good, Wide Right, Center-51-Z.DeOssie, Holder-9-R.Dixon.

    See the full breakdown →
  • Q2 CHI 4th & 7 at the 65
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 38%

    (4:25) (Punt formation) 16-P.O'Donnell punts 13 yards to CHI 48, Center-48-P.Scales, out of bounds.

    See the full breakdown →
  • Q2 NYG 4th & 5 at the 25
    Chose KICK ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 37% p(FG) 83%

    (2:00) (Field Goal formation) 2-A.Rosas 43 yard field goal is No Good, Wide Left, Center-51-Z.DeOssie, Holder-9-R.Dixon.

    See the full breakdown →
  • Q2 CHI 4th & 5 at the 8
    Chose KICK ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 37% p(FG) 97%

    (:11) (Field Goal formation) 15-E.Pineiro 26 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-48-P.Scales, Holder-16-P.O'Donnell.

    See the full breakdown →
  • Q3 NYG 4th & 3 at the 68
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 51%

    (10:01) (Punt formation) 9-R.Dixon punts 62 yards to CHI 6, Center-51-Z.DeOssie, downed by NYG-30-A.Hamilton.

    See the full breakdown →
  • Q3 CHI 4th & 6 at the 6
    Chose KICK ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 34% p(FG) 98%

    (7:12) (Field Goal formation) 15-E.Pineiro 24 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-48-P.Scales, Holder-16-P.O'Donnell.

    See the full breakdown →
  • Q3 NYG 4th & 9 at the 81
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 35%

    (3:47) (Punt formation) 9-R.Dixon punts 57 yards to CHI 24, Center-51-Z.DeOssie, out of bounds.

    See the full breakdown →
  • Q4 NYG 4th & 4 at the 44
    Chose GO ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 43% p(FG) 37%

    (13:04) (Shotgun) 8-D.Jones pass short right to 87-S.Shepard to CHI 43 for 1 yard (21-H.Clinton-Dix).

    See the full breakdown →
  • Q4 CHI 4th & 7 at the 37
    Chose PUNT Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.58 EP
    p(convert) 35% p(FG) 56%

    (9:13) (Punt formation) 16-P.O'Donnell punts 34 yards to NYG 3, Center-48-P.Scales, downed by CHI-84-C.Patterson.

    See the full breakdown →
  • Q4 NYG 4th & 18 at the 23 late-game
    Chose GO Model wanted KICK instead — cost +1.11 EP
    p(convert) 20% p(FG) 86%

    (4:17) (No Huddle, Shotgun) 8-D.Jones pass deep left to 15-G.Tate for 23 yards, TOUCHDOWN [52-K.Mack].

    See the full breakdown →
  • Q4 CHI 4th & 2 at the 67 late-game
    Chose PUNT Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.60 EP
    p(convert) 60%

    (3:48) (Punt formation) 16-P.O'Donnell punts 61 yards to NYG 6, Center-48-P.Scales, downed by CHI-26-D.Bush.

    See the full breakdown →
  • Q4 NYG 4th & 4 at the 88 late-game
    Chose GO Model wanted PUNT instead — cost +0.46 EP
    p(convert) 49%

    (2:55) (Shotgun) 8-D.Jones pass short left to 86-D.Slayton to NYG 29 for 17 yards (20-P.Amukamara).

    See the full breakdown →
  • Q4 NYG 4th & 4 at the 65 late-game
    Chose GO ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 46%

    (1:50) (Shotgun) 8-D.Jones pass incomplete short left to 86-D.Slayton (20-P.Amukamara) [94-L.Floyd].

    See the full breakdown →