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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q1 New York Giants 4th & 3 at the 53

New York Giants 0 – Chicago Bears 0

What Actually Happened

(8:40) (Punt formation) 9-R.Dixon punts 44 yards to CHI 9, Center-51-Z.DeOssie, fair catch by 29-T.Cohen.

The Three Options

GO -0.44 EP
Model's Pick
  • 49% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 50, worth +2.49 EP
  • 51% chance to fail: Chicago Bears takes over around their own 53, worth -3.25 EP
KICK -2.24 EP
  • 18% chance to make a 70-yard field goal: 3 points, then Chicago Bears takes over around their own 25 after the kickoff, worth +1.62 EP
  • 82% chance to miss: Chicago Bears takes over around their own 49, worth -3.07 EP
PUNT -0.97 EP
What Happened
  • Chicago Bears would take over around their own 15, worth -0.97 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.53 EP