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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q1 Chicago Bears 4th & 2 at the 84

Chicago Bears 0 – New York Giants 0

What Actually Happened

(11:38) (Punt formation) 16-P.O'Donnell punts 45 yards to NYG 39, Center-48-P.Scales. 15-G.Tate to NYG 44 for 5 yards (27-S.McManis). PENALTY on NYG-39-E.Penny, Offensive Holding, 10 yards, enforced at NYG 39.

The Three Options

GO -1.14 EP
Model's Pick
  • 62% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 82, worth +1.07 EP
  • 38% chance to fail: New York Giants takes over around their own 84, worth -4.71 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (101 yards).

PUNT -1.88 EP
What Happened
  • New York Giants would take over around their own 42, worth -1.88 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.74 EP