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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q2 Chicago Bears 4th & 18 at the 92

Chicago Bears 0 – New York Giants 0

What Actually Happened

(11:11) (Punt formation) 16-P.O'Donnell punts 46 yards to NYG 46, Center-48-P.Scales. 15-G.Tate to CHI 42 for 12 yards (48-P.Scales).

The Three Options

GO -3.44 EP
  • 28% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 74, worth +1.45 EP
  • 72% chance to fail: New York Giants takes over around their own 92, worth -5.30 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (109 yards).

PUNT -2.66 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • New York Giants would take over around their own 50, worth -2.66 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model