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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q3 Chicago Bears 4th & 6 at the 6

Chicago Bears 10 – New York Giants 7

What Actually Happened

(7:12) (Field Goal formation) 15-E.Pineiro 24 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-48-P.Scales, Holder-16-P.O'Donnell.

The Three Options

GO +2.30 EP
Model's Pick
  • 34% chance to convert, and it's a touchdown from here: worth +6.16 EP
  • 66% chance to fail: New York Giants takes over around their own 6, worth +0.34 EP
KICK +2.15 EP
What Happened
  • 98% chance to make a 23-yard field goal: 3 points, then New York Giants takes over around their own 25 after the kickoff, worth +2.22 EP
  • 2% chance to miss: New York Giants takes over around their own 21, worth -0.51 EP
PUNT +0.15 EP
  • New York Giants would take over around their own 11, worth +0.15 EP

The Verdict

Chose KICK ✓ matched the model