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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 Chicago Bears 4th & 2 at the 67

Chicago Bears 19 – New York Giants 14

What Actually Happened

(3:48) (Punt formation) 16-P.O'Donnell punts 61 yards to NYG 6, Center-48-P.Scales, downed by CHI-26-D.Bush.

The Three Options

GO -1.16 EP
Model's Pick
  • 60% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 65, worth +0.48 EP
  • 40% chance to fail: New York Giants takes over around their own 67, worth -3.58 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (84 yards).

PUNT -1.76 EP
What Happened
  • New York Giants would take over around their own 25, worth -1.76 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.60 EP