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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 New York Giants 4th & 4 at the 44

New York Giants 7 – Chicago Bears 19

What Actually Happened

(13:04) (Shotgun) 8-D.Jones pass short right to 87-S.Shepard to CHI 43 for 1 yard (21-H.Clinton-Dix).

The Three Options

GO +0.24 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • 43% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 40, worth +3.26 EP
  • 57% chance to fail: Chicago Bears takes over around their own 44, worth -2.04 EP
KICK -0.84 EP
  • 37% chance to make a 61-yard field goal: 3 points, then Chicago Bears takes over around their own 25 after the kickoff, worth +2.06 EP
  • 63% chance to miss: Chicago Bears takes over around their own 49, worth -2.54 EP
PUNT -0.04 EP
  • Chicago Bears would take over around their own 12, worth -0.04 EP

The Verdict

Chose GO ✓ matched the model