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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 New York Giants 4th & 18 at the 23

New York Giants 7 – Chicago Bears 19

What Actually Happened

(4:17) (No Huddle, Shotgun) 8-D.Jones pass deep left to 15-G.Tate for 23 yards, TOUCHDOWN [52-K.Mack].

The Three Options

GO +0.64 EP
What Happened
  • 20% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 5, worth +5.65 EP
  • 80% chance to fail: Chicago Bears takes over around their own 23, worth -0.58 EP
KICK +1.75 EP
Model's Pick
  • 86% chance to make a 40-yard field goal: 3 points, then Chicago Bears takes over around their own 25 after the kickoff, worth +2.22 EP
  • 14% chance to miss: Chicago Bears takes over around their own 33, worth -1.13 EP
PUNT -0.13 EP
  • Chicago Bears would take over around their own 11, worth -0.13 EP

The Verdict

Chose GO Model wanted KICK instead — cost +1.11 EP