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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q1 New York Giants 4th & 10 at the 47

New York Giants 0 – Chicago Bears 0

What Actually Happened

(12:57) (Punt formation) 9-R.Dixon punts 39 yards to CHI 8, Center-51-Z.DeOssie, fair catch by 29-T.Cohen.

The Three Options

GO -1.24 EP
  • 29% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 37, worth +3.45 EP
  • 71% chance to fail: Chicago Bears takes over around their own 47, worth -3.17 EP
KICK -1.91 EP
  • 30% chance to make a 64-yard field goal: 3 points, then Chicago Bears takes over around their own 25 after the kickoff, worth +1.37 EP
  • 70% chance to miss: Chicago Bears takes over around their own 49, worth -3.29 EP
PUNT -0.86 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • Chicago Bears would take over around their own 13, worth -0.86 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model