Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q2 Chicago Bears 4th & 7 at the 65

Chicago Bears 0 – New York Giants 7

(4:25) (Punt formation) 16-P.O'Donnell punts 13 yards to CHI 48, Center-48-P.Scales, out of bounds.

The Three Options

GO -1.32 EP

38% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 58, worth +2.17 EP
62% chance to fail: New York Giants takes over around their own 65, worth -3.51 EP

KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (82 yards).

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model