Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q2 Chicago Bears 4th & 17 at the 82

Chicago Bears 0 – New York Giants 7

What Actually Happened

(6:54) (Punt formation) 16-P.O'Donnell punts 51 yards to NYG 31, Center-48-P.Scales. 21-J.Peppers to CHI 29 for 40 yards (84-C.Patterson; 55-J.Woods). CHI-27-S.McManis was injured during the play. He is Out.

The Three Options

GO -2.85 EP

27% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 65, worth +1.89 EP
73% chance to fail: New York Giants takes over around their own 82, worth -4.62 EP

KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (99 yards).

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model