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Cleveland Browns

HC Freddie Kitchens
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Denver Broncos

HC Vic Fangio
Sunday 2019-11-03 · 16:25 Empower Field at Mile High, Denver US ☀️ Clear Spread -4.0 O/U 39.0

Win Probability

CLE
39.9%
DEN
60.1%
☀️ Clear

Confidence: <strong>slight edge</strong> Bands are honesty-checked against held-out seasons, not a feeling about this game — see the <a href="/track-record">full track record</a>.

Key Insights

  • CLE offense: -0.160 EPA/play over its last 8 games (29th in the league)
  • QB edge to CLE: Brandon Allen (DEN) -0.357 vs Baker Mayfield (CLE) -0.038 EPA/dropback (DEN starting Brandon Allen in place of Joe Flacco)
  • DEN offense: -0.068 EPA/play over its last 8 games (24th in the league)
  • DEN defense: -0.047 EPA/play allowed over its last 8 games (10th in the league)

Predicted Final Score

CLE 18
–
DEN 20
Projected margin: DEN by 2 Projected total: 38

Typical error on unseen games: ±10.2 pts on margin, ±10.7 pts on total (held-out 2025). Treat this as a range, not a prediction to the point — see the <a href="/track-record">full track record</a>.

Injury Report — Week 9

CLE

Pharaoh Brown TE Out Concussion
Daniel Ekuale DT Out Calf
Eric Murray S Out Knee
Damarious Randall S Out Hamstring
Kendall Lamm T Questionable Knee

DEN

Bryce Callahan CB Out Foot
Jeff Heuerman TE Out Knee
Ja'Wuan James T Out Knee
Will Parks S Out Hand
DeMarcus Walker DE Questionable Shoulder

Pulled fresh for 2019 week 9 specifically, not a cached snapshot — this changes every week as new reports come in.

Actual Result

CLE 19
–
DEN 24

Prediction missed by 3 pts on margin, 5 pts on total.

Scoring Summary

  • Q1 06:16 TD DEN (6:16) 2-B.Allen pass deep right to 14-C.Sutton for 21 yards, TOUCHDOWN. CLE 0 – DEN 6
  • Q2 12:52 FG CLE (12:52) 4-A.Seibert 39 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-47-C.Hughlett, Holder-7-J.Gillan. CLE 3 – DEN 7
  • Q2 12:48 TD DEN (12:48) 2-B.Allen pass short middle to 87-N.Fant for 75 yards, TOUCHDOWN [54-O.Vernon]. CLE 3 – DEN 13
  • Q2 07:17 FG CLE (7:17) 4-A.Seibert 30 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-47-C.Hughlett, Holder-7-J.Gillan. CLE 6 – DEN 14
  • Q2 03:53 FG CLE (3:53) 4-A.Seibert 27 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-47-C.Hughlett, Holder-7-J.Gillan. CLE 9 – DEN 14
  • Q2 01:52 FG DEN (1:52) 8-B.McManus 43 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-42-C.Kreiter, Holder-6-C.Wadman. CLE 9 – DEN 17
  • Q2 00:19 FG CLE (:19) 4-A.Seibert 30 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-47-C.Hughlett, Holder-7-J.Gillan. CLE 12 – DEN 17
  • Q3 01:13 TD DEN (1:13) 30-P.Lindsay right tackle for 30 yards, TOUCHDOWN. Penalty on CLE-92-C.Thomas, Illegal Use of Hands, declined. CLE 12 – DEN 23
  • Q4 10:53 TD CLE (10:53) (Shotgun) 6-B.Mayfield pass short left to 80-J.Landry for 9 yards, TOUCHDOWN. CLE 18 – DEN 24

Fourth-Down Decisions

  • Q1 DEN 4th & 3 at the 68
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 54%

    (13:35) 6-C.Wadman punts 41 yards to CLE 27, Center-42-C.Kreiter, downed by DEN-42-C.Kreiter. PENALTY on CLE-26-G.Williams, Offensive Holding, 10 yards, enforced at CLE 27.

  • Q1 CLE 4th & 6 at the 67
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 39%

    (11:10) 7-J.Gillan punts 50 yards to DEN 17, Center-47-C.Hughlett. 11-D.Spencer pushed ob at DEN 37 for 20 yards (7-J.Gillan).

  • Q1 CLE 4th & 17 at the 57
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 23%

    (1:54) 7-J.Gillan punts 44 yards to DEN 13, Center-47-C.Hughlett, fair catch by 11-D.Spencer.

  • Q1 DEN 4th & 14 at the 91
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 31%

    (:22) 6-C.Wadman punts 50 yards to CLE 41, Center-42-C.Kreiter. 25-D.Hilliard to DEN 45 for 14 yards (47-J.Jewell). PENALTY on DEN-15-J.Winfree, Player Out of Bounds on Kick, 5 yards, enforced at DEN 45.

  • Q2 CLE 4th & 3 at the 21
    Chose KICK ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 45% p(FG) 90%

    (12:52) 4-A.Seibert 39 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-47-C.Hughlett, Holder-7-J.Gillan.

  • Q2 CLE 4th & 5 at the 12
    Chose KICK ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 35% p(FG) 96%

    (7:17) 4-A.Seibert 30 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-47-C.Hughlett, Holder-7-J.Gillan.

  • Q2 CLE 4th & 9 at the 9
    Chose KICK ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 26% p(FG) 97%

    (3:53) 4-A.Seibert 27 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-47-C.Hughlett, Holder-7-J.Gillan.

  • Q2 DEN 4th & 7 at the 25
    Chose KICK ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 34% p(FG) 85%

    (1:52) 8-B.McManus 43 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-42-C.Kreiter, Holder-6-C.Wadman.

  • Q2 CLE 4th & 3 at the 12
    Chose KICK ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 44% p(FG) 96%

    (:19) 4-A.Seibert 30 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-47-C.Hughlett, Holder-7-J.Gillan.

  • Q3 CLE 4th & 1 at the 66
    Chose PUNT Model wanted GO instead — cost +1.10 EP
    p(convert) 68%

    (13:42) 7-J.Gillan punts 66 yards to end zone, Center-47-C.Hughlett, Touchback.

  • Q3 DEN 4th & 11 at the 81
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 34%

    (11:43) 6-C.Wadman punts 33 yards to CLE 48, Center-42-C.Kreiter, out of bounds.

  • Q3 CLE 4th & 1 at the 5
    Chose GO ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 61% p(FG) 98%

    (5:23) 6-B.Mayfield right guard to DEN 5 for no gain (51-T.Davis; 58-V.Miller). Cleveland challenged the short of the line to gain ruling, and the play was Upheld. The ruling on the field stands. (Timeout #1 at 05:16.)

  • Q4 DEN 4th & 11 at the 55
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 31%

    (7:30) 6-C.Wadman punts 49 yards to CLE 6, Center-42-C.Kreiter. 25-D.Hilliard pushed ob at CLE 12 for 6 yards (43-J.Jones).

  • Q4 CLE 4th & 4 at the 28 late-game
    Chose GO Model wanted KICK instead — cost +0.49 EP
    p(convert) 41% p(FG) 81%

    (3:23) (Shotgun) 6-B.Mayfield pass incomplete short middle to 80-J.Landry (27-D.Harris, 22-K.Jackson).