Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q1 Denver Broncos 4th & 14 at the 91

Denver Broncos 7 – Cleveland Browns 0

What Actually Happened

(:22) 6-C.Wadman punts 50 yards to CLE 41, Center-42-C.Kreiter. 25-D.Hilliard to DEN 45 for 14 yards (47-J.Jewell). PENALTY on DEN-15-J.Winfree, Player Out of Bounds on Kick, 5 yards, enforced at DEN 45.

The Three Options

GO -3.25 EP

31% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 77, worth +1.12 EP
69% chance to fail: Cleveland Browns takes over around their own 91, worth -5.24 EP

KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (108 yards).

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model