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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q2 Denver Broncos 4th & 7 at the 25

Denver Broncos 14 – Cleveland Browns 9

What Actually Happened

(1:52) 8-B.McManus 43 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-42-C.Kreiter, Holder-6-C.Wadman.

The Three Options

GO +0.95 EP
  • 34% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 18, worth +4.79 EP
  • 66% chance to fail: Cleveland Browns takes over around their own 25, worth -1.03 EP
KICK +1.42 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • 85% chance to make a 42-yard field goal: 3 points, then Cleveland Browns takes over around their own 25 after the kickoff, worth +1.93 EP
  • 15% chance to miss: Cleveland Browns takes over around their own 35, worth -1.53 EP
PUNT -0.39 EP
  • Cleveland Browns would take over around their own 11, worth -0.39 EP

The Verdict

Chose KICK ✓ matched the model