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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q2 Cleveland Browns 4th & 3 at the 12

Cleveland Browns 9 – Denver Broncos 17

What Actually Happened

(:19) 4-A.Seibert 30 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-47-C.Hughlett, Holder-7-J.Gillan.

The Three Options

GO +2.06 EP
  • 44% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 9, worth +4.82 EP
  • 56% chance to fail: Denver Broncos takes over around their own 12, worth -0.06 EP
KICK +2.66 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • 96% chance to make a 29-yard field goal: 3 points, then Denver Broncos takes over around their own 25 after the kickoff, worth +2.78 EP
  • 4% chance to miss: Denver Broncos takes over around their own 22, worth -0.16 EP
PUNT -0.05 EP
  • Denver Broncos would take over around their own 11, worth -0.05 EP

The Verdict

Chose KICK ✓ matched the model