Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q1 Cleveland Browns 4th & 17 at the 57

Cleveland Browns 0 – Denver Broncos 7

(1:54) 7-J.Gillan punts 44 yards to DEN 13, Center-47-C.Hughlett, fair catch by 11-D.Spencer.

The Three Options

GO -1.79 EP

23% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 40, worth +3.12 EP
77% chance to fail: Denver Broncos takes over around their own 57, worth -3.28 EP

KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (74 yards).

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model