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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q3 Denver Broncos 4th & 11 at the 81

Denver Broncos 17 – Cleveland Browns 12

What Actually Happened

(11:43) 6-C.Wadman punts 33 yards to CLE 48, Center-42-C.Kreiter, out of bounds.

The Three Options

GO -2.62 EP
  • 34% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 70, worth +1.52 EP
  • 66% chance to fail: Cleveland Browns takes over around their own 81, worth -4.73 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (98 yards).

PUNT -2.00 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • Cleveland Browns would take over around their own 38, worth -2.00 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model