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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 Denver Broncos 4th & 11 at the 55

Denver Broncos 24 – Cleveland Browns 19

What Actually Happened

(7:30) 6-C.Wadman punts 49 yards to CLE 6, Center-42-C.Kreiter. 25-D.Hilliard pushed ob at CLE 12 for 6 yards (43-J.Jones).

The Three Options

GO -0.90 EP
  • 31% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 44, worth +2.86 EP
  • 69% chance to fail: Cleveland Browns takes over around their own 55, worth -2.57 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (72 yards).

PUNT -0.46 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • Cleveland Browns would take over around their own 16, worth -0.46 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model