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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 Cleveland Browns 4th & 4 at the 28

Cleveland Browns 19 – Denver Broncos 24

What Actually Happened

(3:23) (Shotgun) 6-B.Mayfield pass incomplete short middle to 80-J.Landry (27-D.Harris, 22-K.Jackson).

The Three Options

GO +1.40 EP
What Happened
  • 41% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 24, worth +4.11 EP
  • 59% chance to fail: Denver Broncos takes over around their own 28, worth -0.47 EP
KICK +1.90 EP
Model's Pick
  • 81% chance to make a 45-yard field goal: 3 points, then Denver Broncos takes over around their own 25 after the kickoff, worth +2.49 EP
  • 19% chance to miss: Denver Broncos takes over around their own 38, worth -0.60 EP
PUNT -0.35 EP
  • Denver Broncos would take over around their own 11, worth -0.35 EP

The Verdict

Chose GO Model wanted KICK instead — cost +0.49 EP