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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q3 Cleveland Browns 4th & 1 at the 66

Cleveland Browns 12 – Denver Broncos 17

What Actually Happened

(13:42) 7-J.Gillan punts 66 yards to end zone, Center-47-C.Hughlett, Touchback.

The Three Options

GO -0.09 EP
Model's Pick
  • 68% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 65, worth +1.64 EP
  • 32% chance to fail: Denver Broncos takes over around their own 66, worth -3.83 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (83 yards).

PUNT -1.19 EP
What Happened
  • Denver Broncos would take over around their own 24, worth -1.19 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT Model wanted GO instead — cost +1.10 EP