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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q1 Denver Broncos 4th & 3 at the 68

Denver Broncos 0 – Cleveland Browns 0

What Actually Happened

(13:35) 6-C.Wadman punts 41 yards to CLE 27, Center-42-C.Kreiter, downed by DEN-42-C.Kreiter. PENALTY on CLE-26-G.Williams, Offensive Holding, 10 yards, enforced at CLE 27.

The Three Options

GO -0.53 EP
Model's Pick
  • 54% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 65, worth +2.29 EP
  • 46% chance to fail: Cleveland Browns takes over around their own 68, worth -3.78 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (85 yards).

PUNT -0.68 EP
What Happened
  • Cleveland Browns would take over around their own 26, worth -0.68 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model