Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q1 Cleveland Browns 4th & 6 at the 67

Cleveland Browns 0 – Denver Broncos 0

(11:10) 7-J.Gillan punts 50 yards to DEN 17, Center-47-C.Hughlett. 11-D.Spencer pushed ob at DEN 37 for 20 yards (7-J.Gillan).

The Three Options

GO -1.81 EP

39% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 61, worth +1.68 EP
61% chance to fail: Denver Broncos takes over around their own 67, worth -4.06 EP

KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (84 yards).

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model