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Indianapolis Colts

HC Frank Reich
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Kansas City Chiefs

HC Andy Reid
Sunday 2019-10-06 · 20:20 Arrowhead Stadium, Kansas City US ☀️ Clear Spread 10.5 O/U 55.5

Win Probability

IND
29.3%
KC
70.7%
☀️ Clear

Confidence: <strong>strong edge</strong> Bands are honesty-checked against held-out seasons, not a feeling about this game — see the <a href="/track-record">full track record</a>.

Key Insights

  • KC offense: +0.233 EPA/play over its last 8 games (1st in the league)
  • IND offense: +0.099 EPA/play over its last 8 games (3rd in the league)
  • Patrick Mahomes (KC): +0.318 EPA/dropback in prior starts
  • IND defense: +0.063 EPA/play allowed over its last 8 games (27th in the league)

Predicted Final Score

IND 21
–
KC 28
Projected margin: KC by 7 Projected total: 49

Typical error on unseen games: ±10.2 pts on margin, ±10.7 pts on total (held-out 2025). Treat this as a range, not a prediction to the point — see the <a href="/track-record">full track record</a>.

Injury Report — Week 5

IND

Parris Campbell WR Out Abdomen
Clayton Geathers S Out Concussion
Malik Hooker S Out Knee
Tyquan Lewis DT Out Ankle
Darius Leonard LB Out Concussion
Rock Ya-Sin CB Questionable Hip
Marlon Mack RB Questionable Ankle
Anthony Walker LB Questionable Shoulder
T.Y. Hilton WR Questionable Quadricep
Rolan Milligan S Questionable Knee

KC

Eric Fisher T Out Groin
Dorian O'Daniel LB Out Hamstring
Tyreek Hill WR Out Shoulder
Damien Williams RB Questionable Knee
Alex Okafor DE Questionable Hip
Sammy Watkins WR Questionable Shoulder

Pulled fresh for 2019 week 5 specifically, not a cached snapshot — this changes every week as new reports come in.

Actual Result

IND 19
–
KC 13

Prediction missed by 13 pts on margin, 17 pts on total.

Scoring Summary

  • Q1 09:05 FG KC (9:05) 7-H.Butker 29 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-41-J.Winchester, Holder-2-D.Colquitt. IND 0 – KC 3
  • Q1 03:47 TD IND (3:47) 7-J.Brissett scrambles right end for 1 yard, TOUCHDOWN. IND 6 – KC 3
  • Q2 14:19 TD KC (14:19) (Shotgun) 15-P.Mahomes pass deep right to 13-B.Pringle for 27 yards, TOUCHDOWN. IND 7 – KC 9
  • Q2 11:16 FG IND (11:16) 4-A.Vinatieri 32 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-46-L.Rhodes, Holder-8-R.Sanchez. IND 10 – KC 10
  • Q2 00:13 FG IND (:13) 4-A.Vinatieri 32 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-46-L.Rhodes, Holder-8-R.Sanchez. IND 13 – KC 10
  • Q4 07:44 FG IND (7:44) 4-A.Vinatieri 31 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-46-L.Rhodes, Holder-8-R.Sanchez. IND 16 – KC 10
  • Q4 02:30 FG IND (2:30) 4-A.Vinatieri 29 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-46-L.Rhodes, Holder-8-R.Sanchez. IND 19 – KC 10
  • Q4 01:19 FG KC (1:19) 7-H.Butker 36 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-41-J.Winchester, Holder-2-D.Colquitt. IND 19 – KC 13

Fourth-Down Decisions

  • Q1 KC 4th & 8 at the 11
    Chose KICK ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 36% p(FG) 96%

    (9:05) 7-H.Butker 29 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-41-J.Winchester, Holder-2-D.Colquitt.

  • Q2 IND 4th & 12 at the 14
    Chose KICK ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 27% p(FG) 95%

    (11:16) 4-A.Vinatieri 32 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-46-L.Rhodes, Holder-8-R.Sanchez.

  • Q2 KC 4th & 10 at the 75
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 40%

    (10:55) 2-D.Colquitt punts 42 yards to IND 33, Center-41-J.Winchester, fair catch by 80-C.Rogers.

  • Q2 IND 4th & 12 at the 88
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 36%

    (4:43) 8-R.Sanchez punts 49 yards to KC 39, Center-46-L.Rhodes. 84-D.Thomas to KC 38 for -1 yards (16-A.Dulin).

  • Q2 KC 4th & 1 at the 53
    Chose GO ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 74% p(FG) 24%

    (3:06) 42-A.Sherman up the middle to KC 49 for 2 yards (99-J.Houston).

  • Q2 KC 4th & 6 at the 42
    Chose PUNT Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.90 EP
    p(convert) 44% p(FG) 50%

    (1:51) 2-D.Colquitt punts 30 yards to IND 12, Center-41-J.Winchester, fair catch by 80-C.Rogers.

  • Q2 IND 4th & 1 at the 14
    Chose KICK ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 67% p(FG) 95%

    (:13) 4-A.Vinatieri 32 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-46-L.Rhodes, Holder-8-R.Sanchez.

  • Q3 IND 4th & 3 at the 56
    Chose PUNT Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.81 EP
    p(convert) 55%

    (11:13) 8-R.Sanchez punts 38 yards to KC 18, Center-46-L.Rhodes. 84-D.Thomas to KC 20 for 2 yards (30-G.Odum; 44-Z.Franklin).

  • Q3 KC 4th & 17 at the 52
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 29% p(FG) 26%

    (8:39) 2-D.Colquitt punts 40 yards to IND 12, Center-41-J.Winchester, fair catch by 80-C.Rogers.

  • Q3 IND 4th & 7 at the 41
    Chose PUNT Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.52 EP
    p(convert) 39% p(FG) 52%

    (2:30) 8-R.Sanchez punts 36 yards to KC 5, Center-46-L.Rhodes, fair catch by 84-D.Thomas.

  • Q3 KC 4th & 10 at the 95
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 43%

    (1:27) 2-D.Colquitt punts 43 yards to KC 48, Center-41-J.Winchester, downed by KC-41-J.Winchester.

  • Q4 IND 4th & 1 at the 39
    Chose GO ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 70% p(FG) 57%

    (13:52) 25-M.Mack right end pushed ob at KC 36 for 3 yards (56-B.Niemann).

  • Q4 IND 4th & 1 at the 27
    Chose GO ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 69% p(FG) 83%

    (11:15) 7-J.Brissett up the middle to KC 25 for 2 yards (90-E.Ogbah; 91-D.Nnadi).

  • Q4 IND 4th & 10 at the 13
    Chose KICK ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 30% p(FG) 95%

    (7:44) 4-A.Vinatieri 31 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-46-L.Rhodes, Holder-8-R.Sanchez.

  • Q4 KC 4th & 1 at the 66
    Chose GO ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 75%

    (5:06) 26-Dam.Williams up the middle to KC 33 for -1 yards (99-J.Houston).

  • Q4 IND 4th & 1 at the 12 late-game
    Chose KICK Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.59 EP
    p(convert) 67% p(FG) 96%

    (2:30) 4-A.Vinatieri 29 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-46-L.Rhodes, Holder-8-R.Sanchez.

  • Q4 KC 4th & 18 at the 18 late-game
    Chose KICK ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 25% p(FG) 92%

    (1:19) 7-H.Butker 36 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-41-J.Winchester, Holder-2-D.Colquitt.