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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q3 Kansas City Chiefs 4th & 17 at the 52

Kansas City Chiefs 10 – Indianapolis Colts 13

What Actually Happened

(8:39) 2-D.Colquitt punts 40 yards to IND 12, Center-41-J.Winchester, fair catch by 80-C.Rogers.

The Three Options

GO -0.89 EP
  • 29% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 35, worth +3.77 EP
  • 71% chance to fail: Indianapolis Colts takes over around their own 52, worth -2.81 EP
KICK -1.48 EP
  • 26% chance to make a 69-yard field goal: 3 points, then Indianapolis Colts takes over around their own 25 after the kickoff, worth +2.14 EP
  • 74% chance to miss: Indianapolis Colts takes over around their own 49, worth -2.73 EP
PUNT -0.34 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • Indianapolis Colts would take over around their own 15, worth -0.34 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model