Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q2 Indianapolis Colts 4th & 12 at the 88

Indianapolis Colts 10 – Kansas City Chiefs 10

(4:43) 8-R.Sanchez punts 49 yards to KC 39, Center-46-L.Rhodes. 84-D.Thomas to KC 38 for -1 yards (16-A.Dulin).

The Three Options

GO -3.01 EP

36% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 76, worth +0.74 EP
64% chance to fail: Kansas City Chiefs takes over around their own 88, worth -5.09 EP

KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (105 yards).

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model