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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q2 Kansas City Chiefs 4th & 10 at the 75

Kansas City Chiefs 10 – Indianapolis Colts 10

What Actually Happened

(10:55) 2-D.Colquitt punts 42 yards to IND 33, Center-41-J.Winchester, fair catch by 80-C.Rogers.

The Three Options

GO -1.68 EP
  • 40% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 65, worth +1.98 EP
  • 60% chance to fail: Indianapolis Colts takes over around their own 75, worth -4.13 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (92 yards).

PUNT -1.47 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • Indianapolis Colts would take over around their own 32, worth -1.47 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model