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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q3 Indianapolis Colts 4th & 3 at the 56

Indianapolis Colts 13 – Kansas City Chiefs 10

What Actually Happened

(11:13) 8-R.Sanchez punts 38 yards to KC 18, Center-46-L.Rhodes. 84-D.Thomas to KC 20 for 2 yards (30-G.Odum; 44-Z.Franklin).

The Three Options

GO +0.01 EP
Model's Pick
  • 55% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 53, worth +2.59 EP
  • 45% chance to fail: Kansas City Chiefs takes over around their own 56, worth -3.10 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (73 yards).

PUNT -0.80 EP
What Happened
  • Kansas City Chiefs would take over around their own 17, worth -0.80 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.81 EP