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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q3 Kansas City Chiefs 4th & 10 at the 95

Kansas City Chiefs 10 – Indianapolis Colts 13

What Actually Happened

(1:27) 2-D.Colquitt punts 43 yards to KC 48, Center-41-J.Winchester, downed by KC-41-J.Winchester.

The Three Options

GO -2.92 EP
  • 43% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 85, worth +0.83 EP
  • 57% chance to fail: Indianapolis Colts takes over around their own 95, worth -5.71 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (112 yards).

PUNT -2.59 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • Indianapolis Colts would take over around their own 53, worth -2.59 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model