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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q2 Kansas City Chiefs 4th & 1 at the 53

Kansas City Chiefs 10 – Indianapolis Colts 10

What Actually Happened

(3:06) 42-A.Sherman up the middle to KC 49 for 2 yards (99-J.Houston).

The Three Options

GO +1.23 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • 74% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 52, worth +2.61 EP
  • 26% chance to fail: Indianapolis Colts takes over around their own 53, worth -2.71 EP
KICK -1.40 EP
  • 24% chance to make a 70-yard field goal: 3 points, then Indianapolis Colts takes over around their own 25 after the kickoff, worth +2.00 EP
  • 76% chance to miss: Indianapolis Colts takes over around their own 49, worth -2.47 EP
PUNT -0.50 EP
  • Indianapolis Colts would take over around their own 15, worth -0.50 EP

The Verdict

Chose GO ✓ matched the model