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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 Indianapolis Colts 4th & 1 at the 12

Indianapolis Colts 16 – Kansas City Chiefs 10

What Actually Happened

(2:30) 4-A.Vinatieri 29 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-46-L.Rhodes, Holder-8-R.Sanchez.

The Three Options

GO +2.35 EP
Model's Pick
  • 67% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 11, worth +3.84 EP
  • 33% chance to fail: Kansas City Chiefs takes over around their own 12, worth -0.66 EP
KICK +1.76 EP
What Happened
  • 96% chance to make a 29-yard field goal: 3 points, then Kansas City Chiefs takes over around their own 25 after the kickoff, worth +1.88 EP
  • 4% chance to miss: Kansas City Chiefs takes over around their own 22, worth -0.87 EP
PUNT -0.58 EP
  • Kansas City Chiefs would take over around their own 11, worth -0.58 EP

The Verdict

Chose KICK Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.59 EP