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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q2 Indianapolis Colts 4th & 1 at the 14

Indianapolis Colts 10 – Kansas City Chiefs 10

What Actually Happened

(:13) 4-A.Vinatieri 32 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-46-L.Rhodes, Holder-8-R.Sanchez.

The Three Options

GO +2.48 EP
  • 67% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 13, worth +3.71 EP
  • 33% chance to fail: Kansas City Chiefs takes over around their own 14, worth -0.03 EP
KICK +2.77 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • 95% chance to make a 31-yard field goal: 3 points, then Kansas City Chiefs takes over around their own 25 after the kickoff, worth +2.92 EP
  • 5% chance to miss: Kansas City Chiefs takes over around their own 24, worth -0.07 EP
PUNT -0.02 EP
  • Kansas City Chiefs would take over around their own 11, worth -0.02 EP

The Verdict

Chose KICK ✓ matched the model