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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q1 Kansas City Chiefs 4th & 8 at the 11

Kansas City Chiefs 0 – Indianapolis Colts 0

What Actually Happened

(9:05) 7-H.Butker 29 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-41-J.Winchester, Holder-2-D.Colquitt.

The Three Options

GO +2.46 EP
Model's Pick
  • 36% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 3, worth +6.34 EP
  • 64% chance to fail: Indianapolis Colts takes over around their own 11, worth +0.31 EP
KICK +2.30 EP
What Happened
  • 96% chance to make a 28-yard field goal: 3 points, then Indianapolis Colts takes over around their own 25 after the kickoff, worth +2.41 EP
  • 4% chance to miss: Indianapolis Colts takes over around their own 22, worth -0.42 EP
PUNT +0.31 EP
  • Indianapolis Colts would take over around their own 11, worth +0.31 EP

The Verdict

Chose KICK ✓ matched the model