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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 Indianapolis Colts 4th & 1 at the 39

Indianapolis Colts 13 – Kansas City Chiefs 10

What Actually Happened

(13:52) 25-M.Mack right end pushed ob at KC 36 for 3 yards (56-B.Niemann).

The Three Options

GO +1.30 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • 70% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 38, worth +3.01 EP
  • 30% chance to fail: Kansas City Chiefs takes over around their own 39, worth -2.67 EP
KICK -0.80 EP
  • 57% chance to make a 56-yard field goal: 3 points, then Kansas City Chiefs takes over around their own 25 after the kickoff, worth +1.11 EP
  • 43% chance to miss: Kansas City Chiefs takes over around their own 48, worth -3.39 EP
PUNT -1.11 EP
  • Kansas City Chiefs would take over around their own 11, worth -1.11 EP

The Verdict

Chose GO ✓ matched the model