4th & Data
EN ES
← Home
NE Away

New England Patriots

HC Bill Belichick
@
MIA Home

Miami Dolphins

HC Brian Flores
Sunday 2019-09-15 · 13:00 Hard Rock Stadium, Miami Gardens US 🌧 Rain Spread -18.0 O/U 48.5

Win Probability

NE
68.8%
MIA
31.2%
🌧 Rain

Confidence: <strong>clear edge</strong> Bands are honesty-checked against held-out seasons, not a feeling about this game — see the <a href="/track-record">full track record</a>.

Key Insights

  • MIA offense: -0.184 EPA/play over its last 8 games (30th in the league)
  • NE offense: +0.097 EPA/play over its last 8 games (4th in the league)
  • MIA defense: +0.170 EPA/play allowed over its last 8 games (32nd in the league)
  • QB edge to MIA: Ryan Fitzpatrick (MIA) +0.167 vs Tom Brady (NE) +0.188 EPA/dropback

Predicted Final Score

NE 29
–
MIA 20
Projected margin: NE by 9 Projected total: 49

Typical error on unseen games: ±10.2 pts on margin, ±10.7 pts on total (held-out 2025). Treat this as a range, not a prediction to the point — see the <a href="/track-record">full track record</a>.

Injury Report — Week 2

NE

Brandon Bolden RB Out Hamstring
Marcus Cannon T Questionable Shoulder
Matt LaCosse TE Questionable Ankle

MIA

Reshad Jones S Out Ankle
Albert Wilson WR Out Hip
Charles Harris DE Questionable Wrist
Daniel Kilgore C Questionable Shoulder
Trent Harris LB Questionable Foot
Bobby McCain S Questionable Shoulder

Pulled fresh for 2019 week 2 specifically, not a cached snapshot — this changes every week as new reports come in.

Actual Result

NE 43
–
MIA 0

Prediction missed by 34 pts on margin, 6 pts on total.

Scoring Summary

  • Q1 07:49 TD NE (7:49) 26-S.Michel left guard for 1 yard, TOUCHDOWN. NE 6 – MIA 0
  • Q2 01:24 TD NE (1:24) (Shotgun) 12-T.Brady pass deep left to 17-A.Brown for 20 yards, TOUCHDOWN. NE 13 – MIA 0
  • Q3 08:49 FG NE (8:49) (Field Goal formation) 3-S.Gostkowski 28 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-49-J.Cardona, Holder-7-J.Bailey. NE 16 – MIA 0
  • Q3 02:22 TD NE (2:22) 12-T.Brady up the middle for 1 yard, TOUCHDOWN. NE 22 – MIA 0
  • Q4 10:56 TD NE (10:56) 14-R.Fitzpatrick pass short right intended for 11-D.Parker INTERCEPTED by 24-S.Gilmore at NE 46. 24-S.Gilmore for 54 yards, TOUCHDOWN. NE 29 – MIA 0
  • Q4 09:13 TD NE (9:13) (No Huddle, Shotgun) 14-R.Fitzpatrick pass short left intended for 27-K.Ballage INTERCEPTED by 58-J.Collins at NE 31. 58-J.Collins for 69 yards, TOUCHDOWN. NE 36 – MIA 0
  • Q4 02:15 TD NE (2:15) (Shotgun) 12-T.Brady pass short right to 28-J.White for 10 yards, TOUCHDOWN. NE 43 – MIA 0

Fourth-Down Decisions

  • Q1 MIA 4th & 13 at the 78
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 28%

    (13:45) (Punt formation) 2-M.Haack punts 38 yards to NE 40, Center-46-T.Pepper, fair catch by 80-G.Olszewski.

  • Q1 MIA 4th & 14 at the 53
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 25% p(FG) 23%

    (3:05) (Punt formation) 2-M.Haack punts 36 yards to NE 17, Center-46-T.Pepper, fair catch by 80-G.Olszewski.

  • Q2 NE 4th & 2 at the 60
    Chose PUNT Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.87 EP
    p(convert) 64%

    (15:00) (Punt formation) 7-J.Bailey punts 52 yards to MIA 8, Center-49-J.Cardona, downed by NE.

  • Q2 MIA 4th & 1 at the 83
    Chose PUNT Model wanted GO instead — cost +1.09 EP
    p(convert) 70%

    (12:46) (Punt formation) 2-M.Haack punts 54 yards to NE 29, Center-46-T.Pepper, fair catch by 80-G.Olszewski.

  • Q2 NE 4th & 3 at the 30
    Chose KICK Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.74 EP
    p(convert) 53% p(FG) 77%

    (8:32) (Field Goal formation) 3-S.Gostkowski 48 yard field goal is No Good, Wide Right, Center-49-J.Cardona, Holder-7-J.Bailey.

  • Q2 MIA 4th & 4 at the 56
    Chose PUNT Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.39 EP
    p(convert) 44%

    (7:38) (Punt formation) 2-M.Haack punts 21 yards to NE 35, Center-46-T.Pepper, out of bounds.

  • Q2 MIA 4th & 3 at the 68
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 50%

    (:28) (Punt formation) 2-M.Haack punts 54 yards to NE 14, Center-46-T.Pepper. 80-G.Olszewski to NE 17 for 3 yards (44-D.Lacey; 27-K.Ballage).

  • Q3 NE 4th & 7 at the 54
    Chose PUNT Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.38 EP
    p(convert) 42%

    (12:51) (Punt formation) 7-J.Bailey punts 39 yards to MIA 15, Center-49-J.Cardona. 19-J.Grant to MIA 15 for no gain (18-M.Slater).

  • Q3 NE 4th & 7 at the 10
    Chose KICK Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.41 EP
    p(convert) 37% p(FG) 97%

    (8:49) (Field Goal formation) 3-S.Gostkowski 28 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-49-J.Cardona, Holder-7-J.Bailey.

  • Q3 MIA 4th & 12 at the 77
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 29%

    (7:40) (Punt formation) 2-M.Haack punts 48 yards to NE 29, Center-46-T.Pepper. 80-G.Olszewski to NE 35 for 6 yards (35-W.Aikens).

  • Q4 NE 4th & 15 at the 66
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 32%

    (13:07) (Punt formation) 7-J.Bailey punts 53 yards to MIA 13, Center-49-J.Cardona. 19-J.Grant to MIA 18 for 5 yards (18-M.Slater). PENALTY on NE-18-M.Slater, Unsportsmanlike Conduct, 15 yards, enforced at MIA 18.

  • Q4 MIA 4th & 5 at the 50
    Chose GO ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 40% p(FG) 29%

    (7:13) (Shotgun) 3-J.Rosen pass short left to 32-K.Drake pushed ob at NE 40 for 10 yards (21-D.Harmon).

  • Q4 MIA 4th & 10 at the 41
    Chose GO ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 28% p(FG) 52%

    (5:14) (Shotgun) 3-J.Rosen pass incomplete short left to 11-D.Parker (53-K.Van Noy).

  • Q4 MIA 4th & 10 at the 36 late-game
    Chose GO Model wanted KICK instead — cost +1.51 EP
    p(convert) 28% p(FG) 64%

    (:18) (Shotgun) 3-J.Rosen pass short right to 22-M.Walton pushed ob at NE 24 for 12 yards (31-J.Jones).