Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q3 Miami Dolphins 4th & 12 at the 77

Miami Dolphins 0 – New England Patriots 16

(7:40) (Punt formation) 2-M.Haack punts 48 yards to NE 29, Center-46-T.Pepper. 80-G.Olszewski to NE 35 for 6 yards (35-W.Aikens).

The Three Options

GO -2.71 EP

29% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 65, worth +1.54 EP
71% chance to fail: New England Patriots takes over around their own 77, worth -4.48 EP

KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (94 yards).

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model