4TH&DATA
EN ES
Back to Game

Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q1 Miami Dolphins 4th & 14 at the 53

Miami Dolphins 0 – New England Patriots 7

What Actually Happened

(3:05) (Punt formation) 2-M.Haack punts 36 yards to NE 17, Center-46-T.Pepper, fair catch by 80-G.Olszewski.

The Three Options

GO -1.18 EP
  • 25% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 39, worth +3.57 EP
  • 75% chance to fail: New England Patriots takes over around their own 53, worth -2.74 EP
KICK -1.44 EP
  • 23% chance to make a 70-yard field goal: 3 points, then New England Patriots takes over around their own 25 after the kickoff, worth +2.27 EP
  • 77% chance to miss: New England Patriots takes over around their own 49, worth -2.55 EP
PUNT -0.41 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • New England Patriots would take over around their own 15, worth -0.41 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model