4TH&DATA
EN ES
Back to Game

Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q2 Miami Dolphins 4th & 4 at the 56

Miami Dolphins 0 – New England Patriots 7

What Actually Happened

(7:38) (Punt formation) 2-M.Haack punts 21 yards to NE 35, Center-46-T.Pepper, out of bounds.

The Three Options

GO -0.36 EP
Model's Pick
  • 44% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 52, worth +2.78 EP
  • 56% chance to fail: New England Patriots takes over around their own 56, worth -2.82 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (73 yards).

PUNT -0.74 EP
What Happened
  • New England Patriots would take over around their own 17, worth -0.74 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.39 EP