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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q2 Miami Dolphins 4th & 1 at the 83

Miami Dolphins 0 – New England Patriots 7

What Actually Happened

(12:46) (Punt formation) 2-M.Haack punts 54 yards to NE 29, Center-46-T.Pepper, fair catch by 80-G.Olszewski.

The Three Options

GO -0.77 EP
Model's Pick
  • 70% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 82, worth +0.93 EP
  • 30% chance to fail: New England Patriots takes over around their own 83, worth -4.70 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (100 yards).

PUNT -1.86 EP
What Happened
  • New England Patriots would take over around their own 41, worth -1.86 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT Model wanted GO instead — cost +1.09 EP