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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 Miami Dolphins 4th & 10 at the 36

Miami Dolphins 0 – New England Patriots 43

What Actually Happened

(:18) (Shotgun) 3-J.Rosen pass short right to 22-M.Walton pushed ob at NE 24 for 12 yards (31-J.Jones).

The Three Options

GO +0.22 EP
What Happened
  • 28% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 26, worth +1.49 EP
  • 72% chance to fail: New England Patriots takes over around their own 36, worth -0.26 EP
KICK +1.73 EP
Model's Pick
  • 64% chance to make a 53-yard field goal: 3 points, then New England Patriots takes over around their own 25 after the kickoff, worth +2.96 EP
  • 36% chance to miss: New England Patriots takes over around their own 46, worth -0.48 EP
PUNT +0.03 EP
  • New England Patriots would take over around their own 11, worth +0.03 EP

The Verdict

Chose GO Model wanted KICK instead — cost +1.51 EP