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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q3 New England Patriots 4th & 7 at the 10

New England Patriots 13 – Miami Dolphins 0

What Actually Happened

(8:49) (Field Goal formation) 3-S.Gostkowski 28 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-49-J.Cardona, Holder-7-J.Bailey.

The Three Options

GO +2.36 EP
Model's Pick
  • 37% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 3, worth +6.10 EP
  • 63% chance to fail: Miami Dolphins takes over around their own 10, worth +0.20 EP
KICK +1.94 EP
What Happened
  • 97% chance to make a 27-yard field goal: 3 points, then Miami Dolphins takes over around their own 25 after the kickoff, worth +2.03 EP
  • 3% chance to miss: Miami Dolphins takes over around their own 21, worth -0.65 EP
PUNT +0.14 EP
  • Miami Dolphins would take over around their own 11, worth +0.14 EP

The Verdict

Chose KICK Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.41 EP