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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q2 New England Patriots 4th & 2 at the 60

New England Patriots 7 – Miami Dolphins 0

What Actually Happened

(15:00) (Punt formation) 7-J.Bailey punts 52 yards to MIA 8, Center-49-J.Cardona, downed by NE.

The Three Options

GO -0.03 EP
Model's Pick
  • 64% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 58, worth +1.93 EP
  • 36% chance to fail: Miami Dolphins takes over around their own 60, worth -3.47 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (77 yards).

PUNT -0.90 EP
What Happened
  • Miami Dolphins would take over around their own 19, worth -0.90 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.87 EP