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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q3 New England Patriots 4th & 7 at the 54

New England Patriots 13 – Miami Dolphins 0

What Actually Happened

(12:51) (Punt formation) 7-J.Bailey punts 39 yards to MIA 15, Center-49-J.Cardona. 19-J.Grant to MIA 15 for no gain (18-M.Slater).

The Three Options

GO -0.55 EP
Model's Pick
  • 42% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 47, worth +3.00 EP
  • 58% chance to fail: Miami Dolphins takes over around their own 54, worth -3.13 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (71 yards).

PUNT -0.93 EP
What Happened
  • Miami Dolphins would take over around their own 16, worth -0.93 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.38 EP