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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q2 New England Patriots 4th & 3 at the 30

New England Patriots 7 – Miami Dolphins 0

What Actually Happened

(8:32) (Field Goal formation) 3-S.Gostkowski 48 yard field goal is No Good, Wide Right, Center-49-J.Cardona, Holder-7-J.Bailey.

The Three Options

GO +1.43 EP
Model's Pick
  • 53% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 27, worth +4.15 EP
  • 47% chance to fail: Miami Dolphins takes over around their own 30, worth -1.67 EP
KICK +0.69 EP
What Happened
  • 77% chance to make a 47-yard field goal: 3 points, then Miami Dolphins takes over around their own 25 after the kickoff, worth +1.55 EP
  • 23% chance to miss: Miami Dolphins takes over around their own 40, worth -2.23 EP
PUNT -0.45 EP
  • Miami Dolphins would take over around their own 11, worth -0.45 EP

The Verdict

Chose KICK Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.74 EP