Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 New England Patriots 4th & 15 at the 66

New England Patriots 23 – Miami Dolphins 0

What Actually Happened

(13:07) (Punt formation) 7-J.Bailey punts 53 yards to MIA 13, Center-49-J.Cardona. 19-J.Grant to MIA 18 for 5 yards (18-M.Slater). PENALTY on NE-18-M.Slater, Unsportsmanlike Conduct, 15 yards, enforced at MIA 18.

The Three Options

GO -1.67 EP

32% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 51, worth +2.37 EP
68% chance to fail: Miami Dolphins takes over around their own 66, worth -3.54 EP

KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (83 yards).

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model