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Detroit Lions

HC Matt Patricia
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ARI Home

Arizona Cardinals

HC Steve Wilks
Sunday 2018-12-09 · 16:25 State Farm Stadium, Glendale US 🏟 Dome Spread -2.5 O/U 40.0

Win Probability

DET
63.7%
ARI
36.3%
🏟 Dome

Confidence: <strong>clear edge</strong> Bands are honesty-checked against held-out seasons, not a feeling about this game — see the <a href="/track-record">full track record</a>.

Key Insights

  • ARI offense: -0.220 EPA/play over its last 8 games (32nd in the league)
  • Josh Rosen (ARI): -0.277 EPA/dropback in prior starts
  • DET defense: +0.151 EPA/play allowed over its last 8 games (29th in the league)
  • Indoors — weather neutralised

Predicted Final Score

DET 23
–
ARI 18
Projected margin: DET by 5 Projected total: 41

Typical error on unseen games: ±10.2 pts on margin, ±10.7 pts on total (held-out 2025). Treat this as a range, not a prediction to the point — see the <a href="/track-record">full track record</a>.

Injury Report — Week 14

DET

Kerryon Johnson RB Out Knee
Trevor Bates LB Out Ankle
Nick Bellore RB Questionable Ankle
Bruce Ellington WR Questionable Back
Kerry Hyder DE Questionable Illness
Devon Kennard LB Questionable Hip
Brandon Powell WR Questionable Calf
Michael Roberts TE Questionable Shoulder
Darius Slay CB Questionable Ankle
Matthew Stafford QB Questionable Back

ARI

Deone Bucannon LB Out Chest
Chad Williams WR Questionable Ankle
Budda Baker S Questionable Knee

Pulled fresh for 2018 week 14 specifically, not a cached snapshot — this changes every week as new reports come in.

Actual Result

DET 17
–
ARI 3

Prediction missed by 9 pts on margin, 21 pts on total.

Scoring Summary

  • Q2 09:40 FG DET (9:40) 5-M.Prater 47 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-48-D.Muhlbach, Holder-6-S.Martin. DET 3 – ARI 0
  • Q3 03:16 TD DET (3:16) (Shotgun) 3-J.Rosen pass short right intended for 16-T.Sherfield INTERCEPTED by 23-D.Slay [95-R.Okwara] at DET 33. 23-D.Slay for 67 yards, TOUCHDOWN. DET 9 – ARI 0
  • Q4 08:18 FG ARI (8:18) 5-Z.Gonzalez 22 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-46-A.Brewer, Holder-2-A.Lee. DET 10 – ARI 3
  • Q4 04:09 TD DET (4:09) 34-Z.Zenner up the middle for 1 yard, TOUCHDOWN. DET 16 – ARI 3

Fourth-Down Decisions

  • Q1 ARI 4th & 16 at the 76
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 27%

    (10:44) 2-A.Lee punts 45 yards to DET 31, Center-46-A.Brewer. 13-T.Jones to DET 35 for 4 yards (58-T.Armbrister).

  • Q1 DET 4th & 3 at the 58
    Chose PUNT Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.46 EP
    p(convert) 53%

    (8:37) 6-S.Martin punts 43 yards to ARI 15, Center-48-D.Muhlbach, fair catch by 21-P.Peterson.

  • Q1 ARI 4th & 8 at the 73
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 36%

    (6:32) 2-A.Lee punts 51 yards to DET 22, Center-46-A.Brewer, fair catch by 12-B.Ellington.

  • Q1 DET 4th & 17 at the 85
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 29%

    (4:32) 6-S.Martin punts 50 yards to ARI 35, Center-48-D.Muhlbach. 21-P.Peterson pushed ob at DET 47 for 18 yards (32-T.Wilson). PENALTY on ARI-38-D.Amerson, Illegal Block Above the Waist, 10 yards, enforced at ARI 37.

  • Q1 ARI 4th & 6 at the 50
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 38% p(FG) 32%

    (2:39) 2-A.Lee punts 35 yards to DET 15, Center-46-A.Brewer. 12-B.Ellington MUFFS catch, and recovers at DET 16. 12-B.Ellington ran ob at DET 16 for no gain.

  • Q2 DET 4th & 10 at the 29
    Chose KICK ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 30% p(FG) 80%

    (9:40) 5-M.Prater 47 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-48-D.Muhlbach, Holder-6-S.Martin.

  • Q2 ARI 4th & 16 at the 36
    Chose KICK ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 23% p(FG) 66%

    (5:22) 5-Z.Gonzalez 54 yard field goal is No Good, Hit Left Upright, Center-46-A.Brewer, Holder-2-A.Lee.

  • Q2 DET 4th & 15 at the 61
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 28%

    (4:11) 6-S.Martin punts 48 yards to ARI 13, Center-48-D.Muhlbach. 21-P.Peterson to ARI 24 for 11 yards (57-E.Harold). DET-32-T.Wilson was injured during the play.

  • Q2 ARI 4th & 17 at the 70
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 25%

    (2:00) 2-A.Lee punts 57 yards to DET 13, Center-46-A.Brewer. 28-Q.Diggs to DET 17 for 4 yards (47-E.Turner; 59-J.Walker).

  • Q2 DET 4th & 6 at the 52
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 41% p(FG) 28%

    (:40) 6-S.Martin punts 45 yards to ARI 7, Center-48-D.Muhlbach. 21-P.Peterson ran ob at ARI 19 for 12 yards (38-M.Ford).

  • Q3 ARI 4th & 5 at the 56
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 42%

    (11:41) 2-A.Lee punts 56 yards to end zone, Center-46-A.Brewer, Touchback. PENALTY on DET-50-N.Grigsby, Offensive Holding, 10 yards, enforced at DET 20.

  • Q3 DET 4th & 3 at the 64
    Chose PUNT Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.34 EP
    p(convert) 54%

    (7:54) 6-S.Martin punts 51 yards to ARI 13, Center-48-D.Muhlbach. 21-P.Peterson to ARI 14 for 1 yard (17-A.Jones).

  • Q3 ARI 4th & 1 at the 66
    Chose PUNT Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.81 EP
    p(convert) 69%

    (1:00) 2-A.Lee punts 55 yards to DET 11, Center-46-A.Brewer, fair catch by 28-Q.Diggs.

  • Q4 DET 4th & 13 at the 88
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 33%

    (13:43) 6-S.Martin punts 44 yards to ARI 44, Center-48-D.Muhlbach. 21-P.Peterson to DET 44 for 12 yards (26-D.Shead). PENALTY on ARI-92-D.Gardeck, Offensive Holding, 10 yards, enforced at ARI 44.

  • Q4 ARI 4th & 4 at the 4
    Chose KICK Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.57 EP
    p(convert) 39% p(FG) 98%

    (8:18) 5-Z.Gonzalez 22 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-46-A.Brewer, Holder-2-A.Lee.

  • Q4 ARI 4th & 20 at the 49 late-game
    Chose GO Model wanted PUNT instead — cost +0.36 EP
    p(convert) 21% p(FG) 34%

    (2:00) (Shotgun) 3-J.Rosen pass incomplete deep middle to 86-R.Seals-Jones.

  • Q4 DET 4th & 10 at the 51 late-game
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 32% p(FG) 30%

    (1:34) 6-S.Martin punts 36 yards to ARI 15, Center-48-D.Muhlbach, fair catch by 21-P.Peterson.