Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 Arizona Cardinals 4th & 20 at the 49

Arizona Cardinals 3 – Detroit Lions 17

What Actually Happened

(2:00) (Shotgun) 3-J.Rosen pass incomplete deep middle to 86-R.Seals-Jones.

The Three Options

GO -0.75 EP

What Happened

21% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 29, worth +2.92 EP
79% chance to fail: Detroit Lions takes over around their own 49, worth -1.75 EP

KICK -0.42 EP

34% chance to make a 66-yard field goal: 3 points, then Detroit Lions takes over around their own 26 after the kickoff, worth +2.16 EP
66% chance to miss: Detroit Lions takes over around their own 49, worth -1.75 EP

The Verdict

Chose GO Model wanted PUNT instead — cost +0.36 EP