Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 Detroit Lions 4th & 13 at the 88

Detroit Lions 10 – Arizona Cardinals 0

What Actually Happened

(13:43) 6-S.Martin punts 44 yards to ARI 44, Center-48-D.Muhlbach. 21-P.Peterson to DET 44 for 12 yards (26-D.Shead). PENALTY on ARI-92-D.Gardeck, Offensive Holding, 10 yards, enforced at ARI 44.

The Three Options

GO -3.12 EP

33% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 75, worth +0.88 EP
67% chance to fail: Arizona Cardinals takes over around their own 88, worth -5.08 EP

KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (105 yards).

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model