Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q1 Detroit Lions 4th & 17 at the 85

Detroit Lions 0 – Arizona Cardinals 0

What Actually Happened

(4:32) 6-S.Martin punts 50 yards to ARI 35, Center-48-D.Muhlbach. 21-P.Peterson pushed ob at DET 47 for 18 yards (32-T.Wilson). PENALTY on ARI-38-D.Amerson, Illegal Block Above the Waist, 10 yards, enforced at ARI 37.

The Three Options

GO -3.36 EP

29% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 68, worth +1.14 EP
71% chance to fail: Arizona Cardinals takes over around their own 85, worth -5.17 EP

KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (102 yards).

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model