4TH&DATA
EN ES
Back to Game

Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q2 Detroit Lions 4th & 15 at the 61

Detroit Lions 3 – Arizona Cardinals 0

What Actually Happened

(4:11) 6-S.Martin punts 48 yards to ARI 13, Center-48-D.Muhlbach. 21-P.Peterson to ARI 24 for 11 yards (57-E.Harold). DET-32-T.Wilson was injured during the play.

The Three Options

GO -1.76 EP
  • 28% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 46, worth +2.82 EP
  • 72% chance to fail: Arizona Cardinals takes over around their own 61, worth -3.52 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (78 yards).

PUNT -0.74 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • Arizona Cardinals would take over around their own 20, worth -0.74 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model